The fact of the matter is that it truly is trying to locate a needle in haystack. Nay, hayfield.
Also, how do we know exactly how Chicago evaluates these targeted prospects. Do the Bears think that one prospect's marginably slow 40 time crosses him off the list of eligible selections? Or maybe, they shrug it off as a result of poor running conditions mixed with a nagging injury, meaning that prospect is still in the running.
It's simply too challenging to try to get into the mind of NFL coaches and GMs and how they evaluate prospects down to every minute detail like body fat and what his answer was to, "If you were an animal, what would you be and why?"
I'd choose Killer Whale, so teams know that I have that deadly instinct, yet I can also impress the public as a model citizen with my skills at SeaWorld. But hey, that's just me.
In March Madness, we have tangible evidence for why we make these selections. We have seen the teams play on the hardwood and we know what they are capable of. When filling out a bracket, we know how Michigan's style of play matches up with a team like VCU or Syracuse, and we make educated guesses based on our beliefs. In reality, it still is very much a crapshoot and many times we are incorrect, which is why FGCU advanced past opening weekend and Andy Enfield turned in his cushy coaching job on the beach for another equally enticing position in southern California.
At the very least, however, we can give logical explanations for the choices we make based on how teams have played through 30-plus games of available tape.
The NFL Draft is the exact opposite. We have plenty of tape we can study on the prospect, but no tape that will assist us in judging GMs and higher-ups in the front office. These "experts" have a vague idea where teams may be headed, and even then it's never entirely correct. As soon as one team makes a surprising pick that nobody saw coming, there are seismic ripples in the subsequent picks. Suddenly, all these "Draft Gurus" have a success rate that's only slightly better than North Carolina A&T taking down Louisville in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.